Forecast analyst in demand planning

Scentbird operates two brands with fundamentally different demand models. Scentbird is a fragrance subscription business. Forecast inputs are driven by subscriber counts layered with behavioral assumptions including custom selection rate, featured fragrance adoption, add-on rate, and upgrade rate. Drift is a design-forward scent brand sold through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, where POS signals and channel mix drive the forecast. Getting both right matters: every forecast decision flows directly into what we buy, when we buy it, and how much working capital we tie up across a $42M+ combined inventory position.

• Maintain the statistical forecast across 10,000+ SKUs using exception-based review to prioritize material forecast deviations, unusual demand patterns, and high-impact demand exceptions rather than brute-force SKU-by-SKU maintenance.
• Review, update, and validate forecast outputs, incorporating approved demand adjustments and business inputs into Netstock to ensure forecasts reflect the latest sales history, demand signals, promotions, launches, and assumptions.
• Identify unusual forecast outputs, discrepancies, or gaps and investigate root causes before they flow downstream into purchasing decisions.
• Maintain accurate SKU and forecast data as the item base evolves, including new launches, transitions, and end-of-life SKUs all require ongoing model maintenance.
• As proficiency in the role develops, look for opportunities to standardize, simplify, and automate recurring planning activities to reduce cycle time and error risk.
• Own recurring forecast accuracy and bias reporting, tracking WMAPE, forecast bias, and error by SKU, brand, demand type, and channel on a monthly cadence.
• Identify the SKUs, assumptions, channels, promotions, and business overrides driving forecast error and provide structured root-cause commentary for leadership review.
• Track statistical baseline versus override performance to understand where model adjustments add or subtract forecast value.
• Understand how forecast quality affects purchasing, inventory, service levels, and working capital. Flag material demand changes or forecast anomalies to the planning team so they can be assessed for downstream impact.
• Enter, update, and maintain promotional quantities and assumptions in Netstock, ensuring that all planned promotions and Scent of the Month features are fully accounted for in the forecast.
• Reconcile promotional plans against the forecast to identify missing or incorrect inputs before the monthly demand review.
• Validate promotional timing, SKU coverage, and expected demand impact.
• Identify unsupported, incomplete, or inconsistent demand inputs and surface them to the Sr. Manager of Forecasting & Demand Planning for resolution before the demand review closes.
• Support the monthly S&OP demand review process, attending demand reviews and feeder meetings on a monthly cadence.
• Maintain the demand-review decision log, capturing assumptions, risks, opportunities, approved forecast changes, owners, and quantified demand impact so that every agreed-upon decision is documented and traceable.
• Translate approved S&OP decisions into quantifiable forecast adjustments within Netstock, ensuring every agreed-upon change is reflected in the system before the cycle closes.
• Prepare analysis highlighting key risks, opportunities, assumptions, and decisions for leadership review.
• Support the process of finalizing the consensus demand forecast following the monthly demand review.
• Help establish and maintain a consistent, data-driven forecasting methodology across the organization.
• Prepare clean, accurate, and validated demand inputs for the monthly S&OP demand review feeder meeting. Inputs must be ready on time, every cycle.
• Review underlying data and identify errors, gaps, or anomalies before the meeting.
• Ensure required forecast, sales, promotional, and demand inputs and reporting are available ahead of monthly reviews.
• Perform recurring data validation and reconciliation to maintain the integrity of the demand planning process.
• Support ad hoc demand analysis and business questions across Scentbird and Drift.
• Analyze demand implications related to new product launches and launch timing, promotional sizing and timing, channel mix changes, sales trends and changes in customer behavior, and SKU-level demand changes.

• 1-3 years of experience in forecasting, demand planning, supply chain, business analytics, or a related field.
• Strong follow-through and ownership of assigned responsibilities; ability to work autonomously and manage recurring monthly deadlines without oversight is critical.
• Comfortable working with large, complex datasets at high volume while maintaining a high level of accuracy.
• Strong Excel skills, including experience with advanced formulas, pivot tables, Power Query, and Power Pivot.
• Analytical curiosity: you want to understand why the forecast was wrong, not just that it was wrong.
• Strong attention to detail and a high bar for data accuracy and output quality.
• Strong organizational skills and the ability to manage recurring monthly deadlines.
• Comfortable participating in cross-functional meetings and translating qualitative business inputs into quantitative forecast adjustments.
• Будет плюсом: Experience automating analytical workflows using Python, Power Query, Power BI, or other technologies is preferred; Experience with ERP, forecasting, or planning systems is a plus; Netstock and NetSuite experience is a meaningful differentiator; Subscription or DTC demand planning, specifically understanding behavioral-assumption-driven forecasting, not just historical trend extrapolation; Multi-channel demand environments, including wholesale, retail, and DTC in the same planning role; Statistical forecasting methods, including trend, seasonality, error measurement, bias identification; Formal S&OP / IBP processes; Supply Chain Management, specifically within supply planning, demand planning, procurement, or inventory management; Promotional forecasting and SKU-level planning; Netstock, NetSuite, or similar planning/ERP systems; Power BI, Power Query, or other data analytics tools

• Competitive base compensation
• Bonus program
• Paid Time Off
• Wellness Days Off
• A fun, creative and energetic work environment.